The GATE Grind

GATE 2021 ME (ME2) – Question 53

Production Planning and Control · Forecasting models · 2 marks · Numerical answer

The demand and forecast of an item for five months are given in the table.

MonthAprilMayJuneJulyAugust
Demand225220285290250
Forecast200240300270230

The Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) in the forecast is _____ % (round off to two decimal places).

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Show answer and explanation

Correct answer: 8.03 to 8.11

Explanation

MAPE averages absolute error divided by actual demand: $\frac{100}{5}(25/225+20/220+15/285+20/290+20/250)$.

This gives **8.07%**. Divide each month’s error by its own actual demand; neither signed averaging nor a common denominator gives MAPE.