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GATE 2020 CE (CE1) – Question 28

Hydrology · Reservoir capacity, flood estimation and routing, surface runoff models · 1 mark · Numerical answer

Find probability that a 50-year flood does NOT occur at all during 25 project years, to two decimal places.

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Correct answer: .59 to .61

Explanation

Annual exceedance probability is 1/50. Assuming independent years, no-event probability is $(1-1/50)^{25}=0.603465$. Rounded, **0.60**.