GATE 2026 CE (CE2) – Question 32
The probability (in %) that a storm having return period of 15 years may occur in the next 10 years is ______ (*rounded off to two decimal places*).
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Correct answer: 49.59 to 50.09
Explanation
The chance that the storm occurs in a given year is $\frac{1}{T} = \frac{1}{15}$. The probability that it occurs at least once in $n = 10$ years is $1 - \left(1 - \frac{1}{15}\right)^{10} = 1 - \left(\frac{14}{15}\right)^{10} = 1 - 0.5016 = 0.4984$, which is 49.84 %.